Possible scenario
Protests Reignite Locally
20% Chance
The execution could revive localized protest activity, especially around mourning ceremonies, Kurdish-majority areas, universities, and prison gates. The most likely protest outcome is limited and heavily policed rather than a nationwide uprising.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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