Possible scenario
Crackdown Deepens
42% Chance
The most likely path is that Iranian authorities treat the execution of Siavash Jamshidi Kheirabadi as part of a continuing deterrence campaign. The judiciary, IRGC-linked security bodies, and prison authorities continue rapid prosecutions despite UN warnings.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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