Possible scenario
Foreign Penalties Broaden
28% Chance
Western governments and UN bodies respond with additional human-rights measures, but most steps remain targeted at officials, judges, prison administrators, and security entities. This is likely to carry diplomatic costs for Tehran while leaving oil flows and global markets largely intact.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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