Possible scenario
Targeted Enforcement Pause
40% Chance
The White House treats the Kansas cattle-slaughter disruption as evidence that indiscriminate workplace raids are economically costly. Trump keeps the deportation push politically alive but directs ICE and DHS to prioritize criminal targets and avoid critical food, farm, hotel, and construction worksites.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +1.0%
- Consumer Services +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Tickers
- +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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