Possible scenario
Enforcement With Disruptions
30% Chance
Trump acknowledges the balance is difficult but decides that visible enforcement remains central to his immigration mandate. ICE continues raids, with some tactical adjustments, leaving meatpacking, hospitality, and construction employers exposed to intermittent labor shocks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -1.1%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Tickers
- -2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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