Possible scenario
Legal Worker Compromise
18% Chance
Economic disruption gives business groups and farm-state Republicans leverage to push a controlled legal-worker channel alongside tougher border enforcement. The administration frames the shift as protecting supply chains while maintaining deportations for criminal and recent-entry cases.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +1.2%
- Consumer Services +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.