Possible scenario
GOP Countermove Builds
13%
−0.1%
Republicans treat the 2026 result as a failure of map design rather than a durable Democratic breakthrough. State and national GOP organizations begin planning litigation, candidate recruitment, and possible mid-decade redistricting responses before the 2028 cycle.
What it moves
- Business Services+0.1%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.