Possible scenario
Reform Deal Keeps US
42% Chance
The most likely path is a negotiated compromise in which the IEA adjusts its public language, governance process, or scenario presentation without abandoning climate analysis. The US remains a member because the annual contribution is small, allies have leverage, and Washington can claim a political win through reform.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Utilities -0.1%
Tickers
- XOM+0.3%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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