Possible scenario
Standoff And Delay
20% Chance
The dispute may remain unresolved for months, with Washington maintaining the threat while using it as leverage in IEA meetings. This preserves policy uncertainty but avoids an immediate institutional rupture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Utilities -0.3%
Tickers
- XOM+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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