Possible scenario
Formal Exit Begins
30% Chance
Washington could move from threats to a formal withdrawal process if the administration concludes the IEA remains too aligned with climate advocacy. The direct budget effect is limited, but the political signal would reinforce a pro-fossil-fuel US energy stance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Utilities -0.6%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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