Possible scenario
Violent Escalation
20% Chance
A miscalculation by security forces or protesters produces fatalities, triggering wider unrest in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The army is pulled more visibly into internal security, raising concerns over constitutional order, IMF compliance, and governability.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.