Possible scenario
Containment And Arrests
30% Chance
The government uses arrests, roadblocks, Section 144 restrictions, and communications controls to prevent a large PTI presence in central Islamabad. This avoids an immediate regime crisis but prolongs political paralysis and keeps pressure on the Sharif coalition.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Telecommunications -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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