Possible scenario
Managed March De-Escalates
35% Chance
The most likely path is a controlled confrontation in which PTI convoys advance but are steered into a permitted protest zone outside the capital's core security area. Shehbaz Sharif's government avoids a full crackdown while keeping Imran Khan's release and election audit demands unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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