Possible scenario
GOP Reclaims Edge
38% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Republican fundamentals reassert themselves in a district Donald Trump carried by 13 points in 2024. Nancy Lacore's poll lead forces national GOP spending, but the race moves back toward the Republican nominee as partisan voters consolidate.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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