Possible scenario
Retaliatory Spiral
22% Chance
Brazil responds to the widening consular suspension with reciprocal diplomatic measures and threats of economic retaliation. This is less likely than a managed freeze, but the addition of Canada and the UK increases the risk that Brasília treats the move as a coordinated political campaign.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.