Possible scenario
Managed Diplomatic Freeze
38% Chance
The most likely path is a controlled standoff in which the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia keep Brazil consular services suspended while avoiding broader economic sanctions. Brazil denounces the coordinated move but allows back-channel talks through Itamaraty and allied embassies.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Business Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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