Possible scenario
Fast Negotiated Reopening
27% Chance
Brazil and the aligned governments reach a procedural compromise that lets consular services resume before the dispute spills into trade or aviation. This outcome is plausible because all sides have incentives to protect business travel, tourism and citizen services.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.