Possible scenario
Ukraine Retaliates
18% Chance
Ukraine could answer the Pryluky attack by striking Russian launch sites, air bases, fuel depots, or command infrastructure. This would fit Kyiv's established strategy but carries a modest risk of wider energy or escalation effects.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.