Possible scenario
Air Campaign Intensifies
42% Chance
Russia is most likely to continue using drones, missiles, and glide bombs against Ukrainian regional cities, exploiting known gaps in Ukraine's air-defense coverage. The Pryluky death toll becomes part of a broader pattern rather than a discrete turning point.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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