Possible scenario
Phased FAA Approval
42% Chance
The FAA is most likely to avoid an immediate jump to 456 annual Starship launches while still recognizing SpaceX's operational progress after the first operational Starship mission. A phased approval with environmental, safety, airspace and noise mitigations lets the agency support U.S. launch capacity without appearing to pre-judge the full expansion.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Telecommunications +0.4%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- SPCX+5.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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