Possible scenario
Extended Environmental Review
28% Chance
The FAA may determine that SpaceX's requested cadence is materially different from prior Starbase approvals and requires a deeper environmental process. This outcome delays a final decision but does not necessarily signal opposition to higher Starship launch rates.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
- Telecommunications -0.1%
Tickers
- SPCX-2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.