Possible scenario
Deadline Missed
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is that President Javier Milei cannot assemble enough votes in Congress before the November ratification deadline. Opposition blocs and provincial lawmakers keep demanding safeguards for Mercosur rules, local industry and farm interests.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.7%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.4%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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