Possible scenario
Narrow Compromise
30% Chance
Milei's party lacks a majority but could still assemble a limited majority by watering down the agreement. A compromise would likely protect sensitive sectors, preserve Mercosur language and phase in tariff cuts more slowly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.3%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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