Possible scenario
Executive Workaround
18% Chance
If full ratification is impossible, the Casa Rosada may try to implement administrative or regulatory pieces that do not clearly require congressional approval. This would preserve parts of the US relationship but invite legal and Mercosur challenges.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Tickers
- +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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