Possible scenario
Sanctions Compliance Hardens
19% Chance
Pakistan aligns more visibly with US restrictions after Washington blocks Iran's overland trade route into Pakistan. The result is a longer halt to formal and informal commerce, especially fuel, food, and small manufactured goods moving through Balochistan.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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