Possible scenario
Managed Border Closure
42% Chance
Pakistan keeps the 900 km Iran border sealed temporarily while security and customs officials review crossings in Balochistan. Both Islamabad and Tehran avoid new military action because the January 2024 strike exchange showed the costs of escalation.
Initial impacts
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.