Possible scenario
Localized Security Escalation
27% Chance
Militant activity in Balochistan and Sistan-Baluchistan expands after the border shutdown, drawing Pakistani and Iranian security forces into more frequent confrontations. The most likely version remains localized, but memories of the January 2024 airstrikes raise risk premiums.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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