Possible scenario
Prosecutors Find Leak
25% Chance
German investigators conclude that Hanning shared sensitive material with a Chinese military figure, likely through an intermediary or private consulting channel. This would be a major intelligence scandal for Berlin, but still primarily a security and diplomatic event rather than a broad macro shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Technology +0.3%
- Business Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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