Possible scenario
Evidence Stays Narrow
42% Chance
Investigators find that August Hanning had suspicious contact with a Chinese military-linked figure, but evidence of actual transmission of highly classified BND material remains limited. The case proceeds slowly through German courts, with no immediate rupture in Berlin-Beijing relations.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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