Possible scenario
Diplomatic Escalation
18% Chance
Berlin treats the alleged intelligence transfer as part of a wider Chinese espionage campaign in Germany. The response includes diplomatic protests, expulsions, or tighter scrutiny of Chinese activity, creating modest pressure on Germany-China trade-exposed firms.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.6%
- Technology -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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