Possible scenario
Hegseth Survives Censure
35% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is that Pete Hegseth remains at the Pentagon while the livestream plan is formally abandoned. Trump has already denied responsibility, giving the White House an incentive to contain the controversy through staff-level blame, revised execution protocols, and limited congressional oversight.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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