Possible scenario
Congress Opens Investigation
25% Chance
Congressional scrutiny intensifies if Tillis is joined by Democrats and national-security Republicans on the Senate Armed Services Committee. This path keeps Hegseth in office initially but turns the livestream plan into a broader inquiry into Pentagon decision-making and White House involvement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.6%
Tickers
- -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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