Possible scenario
Hegseth Leaves Pentagon
30% Chance
A resignation or forced departure becomes plausible if more Republican senators join Tillis and the White House decides Hegseth is expendable. The immediate impact would be political rather than macroeconomic, though defense-sector equities could see a small reaction depending on whether succession looks orderly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- RTX-0.1%
- GD-0.1%
- -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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