Possible scenario
Rapid negotiated reopening
45% Chance
Local mediators, the National Oil Corporation, and armed group representatives reach a short-term arrangement to reopen the pipeline. Sharara output resumes quickly enough to avoid a formal force majeure and cap the cumulative loss near the current 720,000 barrels.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
- TTE+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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