Possible scenario
Force majeure declared
30% Chance
The blockade continues and the NOC formally declares force majeure on Sharara-linked crude flows. The outage removes a visible portion of Libyan supply, though the market impact remains contained because the disruption is localized.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
Tickers
- TTE-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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