Possible scenario
Chinese Retaliation Risk
18% Chance
Beijing may answer the EU cap with targeted retaliation, especially if Chinese automakers and battery producers lobby for a stronger response. The most market-relevant risk is not a broad trade war, but sector-specific actions against European autos, chemicals, or battery-material flows.
Initial impacts
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.5%
- Industrials -0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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