Possible scenario
Quota Holds Firm
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the European Commission implements the 350,000 annual cap without a near-term reversal. The WTO agreement remains formally intact, but market participants price in lower Chinese hybrid exports to Europe and weaker lithium demand.
Initial impacts
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -1.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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