Possible scenario
Negotiated Quota Adjustment
25% Chance
A compromise remains plausible because both sides recently reached a WTO hybrid-vehicle agreement and may want to prevent a broader trade dispute. Any sign of quota flexibility would likely trigger a relief rally in lithium names and Chinese automakers.
Initial impacts
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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