Possible scenario
Controversy Damages Nominee
20% Chance
Further scrutiny reinforces doubts about El-Sayed among suburban and working-class swing voters. Democratic officials do not remove him, but the issue materially weakens his campaign and shifts the race toward Rogers.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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