Possible scenario
Houthi Counterattack Succeeds
20% Chance
The Houthis could respond with a concentrated counterattack using drones, missiles, and local reinforcements from the Red Sea coast. If government forces are pushed back, markets would price renewed risk to shipping lanes and a higher chance of disruption near Bab al-Mandab.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.