Government Consolidates Mocha

The most likely outcome is that Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces hold Mocha and use it as a staging point to pressure Houthi positions along the Red Sea coast. This would not fully reopen Bab al-Mandab, but it would reduce immediate fears that the Houthis can dominate the entire western shoreline.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.