Possible scenario
Security Containment Improves
20% Chance
Saudi Arabia, the United States, and regional partners reinforce surveillance and air-defense coverage around key oil infrastructure. The outcome would not eliminate risk, but it would make another near-term disruption less likely and could compress the oil-risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.1%
- Energy -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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