Possible scenario
Renewed Infrastructure Attacks
25% Chance
Iran-aligned Houthi forces or associated militias attempt to disrupt Saudi oil infrastructure again after claiming the Abqaiq strike. The most likely version is limited or intercepted attacks, but a successful hit would quickly restore a geopolitical risk premium in crude.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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