Possible scenario
Bypass Capacity Holds
45% Chance
Saudi Arabia sustains elevated East-West pipeline flows, using Yanbu and Red Sea export routes to reduce dependence on Hormuz. This is the base case because repairs were completed on September 22 and the latest headline suggests operational confidence despite recent Houthi claims.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
- FRO-0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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