Possible scenario
Talks Become Leverage
20% Chance
Russia uses the proposal to pressure Washington and split allied positions, rather than to accelerate a settlement. The talks continue, but Moscow emphasizes commercial openings to test whether the U.S. will dilute sanctions unity before Ukraine agrees to terms.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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