Sequenced Bargain Emerges

Moscow and Washington move toward a sequencing compromise: economic projects are discussed now, but implementation remains tied to a Ukraine ceasefire or settlement milestones. This is the most likely constructive path because it lets the Kremlin claim engagement while allowing the U.S. to preserve sanctions leverage.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.