Possible scenario
Sanctions Line Holds
30% Chance
Washington rejects Russia's preferred sequencing and insists that meaningful economic normalization can only follow a Ukraine settlement. This outcome is likely because U.S. and European policymakers will be wary of granting benefits before verifiable Russian concessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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