Consensus Aigner Presidency

Ilse Aigner becomes the mainstream candidate of the governing CDU/CSU-SPD bloc, with enough backing from Greens and FDP delegates to isolate the AfD. This is the most likely path because the presidency is largely ceremonial, and major parties have strong incentives to avoid a symbolic breakdown during a period of AfD strength.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.