• 

  52%

  +0.2%

  Consensus Aigner Presidency

  Ilse Aigner becomes the mainstream candidate of the governing CDU/CSU-SPD bloc, with enough backing from Greens and FDP delegates to isolate the AfD. This is the most likely path because the presidency is largely ceremonial, and major parties have strong incentives to avoid a symbolic breakdown during a period of AfD strength.

  Industrials +0.1% · Finance +0.1%

• 

  24%

  −0.2%

  Delayed Coalition Win

  Aigner still reaches Bellevue Palace, but the vote exposes weakness in Merz’s coalition management and unease among SPD or Green-aligned delegates. The result would not amount to a market crisis, but it would reinforce the perception that German federal politics is becoming harder to coordinate.

  Finance −0.2% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.2%

• 

  14%

  0.0%

  Nomination Is Replaced

  Aigner’s nomination falters because of coalition arithmetic, CSU calculations, or resistance from SPD and Green delegates. A replacement candidate is still likely to come from the democratic mainstream, but the process would embarrass Merz and signal weaker party discipline.

  Finance −0.1%

• 

  10%

  −0.4%

  AfD Disrupts Vote

  The AfD uses the Federal Convention to demonstrate its enlarged state-level delegate strength and challenge the established parties’ control of national symbolism. Aigner probably still wins, but the vote becomes a test of the anti-AfD firewall rather than a routine presidential handover.

  Finance −0.3% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.3% · Industrials −0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.