Possible scenario
Democrats Localize Races
27% Chance
Democratic incumbents and challengers blunt Trump's national message by emphasizing local economic records, health care, and candidate quality. This outcome is plausible because Brown and Ossoff have established personal brands and because Trump-heavy rallies can motivate Democratic turnout in suburban counties.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.3%
- Utilities +0.2%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.